Quantitative Analysis of Financial Instruments Based on Portfolio Theory and Game Theory
Dmitry Vlasov
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.2.2-284-303
Abstract:

The article focuses on modern methods of quantitative analysis of fi nancial instruments based on the Markowitz portfolio theory, which allows designing optimal portfolios of fi nancial instruments under the assumption of extreme rationality of investors and game theory, which allows taking into account the factor of player interaction between those participating in fi nancial markets. The relevance of the research topic concerns the need to improve the quality of fi nancial decisions made in conditions of increased volatility of fi nancial markets. An initial set of fi nancial instruments was built, consisting of fi fty alternative options for placing funds. A preliminary analysis of the initial set of fi nancial instruments allowed us to narrow it down to ten elements that are most preferable for placing funds. The classic Markowitz portfolio model, which assumes maximizing the expected return on a portfolio at a given level of risk, is complemented by auxiliary constraints that allow taking into account individual investor preferences. The presented six modifi cations of Markowitz portfolios help to identify the dynamics of the quantitative characteristics of portfolios depending on the individual preferences of investors. Expected profi tability and expected risk, estimated from real fi nancial data, are accepted as quantitative characteristics of portfolios. The game model is constructed in the form of a game with nature, which allows taking into account the complex nature of player interaction, which in most cases is not characterized by antagonism. The game model is designed to select the optimal net strategy of the investor, which takes into account various fi nancial market conditions expressed by a market index (market portfolio). The study of the game model is implemented on the basis of the integrated Hodge-Lehman criterion regarding profi tability and risk. Its use made it possible to take into account the individual level of investor confi dence in the available fi nancial information. In the process of practical implementation of these techniques, results were obtained that allow us to conclude about the degree of sensitivity of optimal investment strategies to individual preferences and perceptions of investors. The constructed models can be used to update the content of professional training of students in the higher economic school system, as well as to set up courses of additional professional education

Flow Method in Diagnostics of Threats to National Economic Security of Russia
Natalya Poltoradneva
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.2.2-304-331
Abstract:

The work identifi es the problem of discrepancy between the rapidly growing importance of national economic security (NES) of Russia and the degree of its scientifi c elaboration according to such criteria as clarity in defi ning the subject of NES, methodology for studying NES, mechanisms for connecting scientifi c research with education and practice of NES.

The article is devoted to the study of the dynamics of teacher and scientist staff. The research is carried out using a new method developed by the author – the Flow Method. The novelty of the Flow Method begins with a change in the idea of the object of study. In traditional approaches, an object is fi xed, and is studied from different sides in different periods of time; the Flow Method focuses the researcher’s attention on the movement of resource fl ows in the economic environment. In such a movement of resources, the following are distinguished: infl ows, outfl ows, accumulations. Normally, the movement of resources is balanced.

It is appropriate to consider sanctions as the most important component of a hybrid war, aimed at unbalancing the resources of the national economy by blocking fl ows. The study showed that the representation of the movement of resources by the Flow Method differs from traditional representations in statistics and accounting.

Approbation of the Method in diagnosing the state of personnel in scientifi c and educational institutions showed strategic threats to the national security of the Russian Federation. Since 2015, the number of scientists and teachers with an academic degree has been continuously decreasing. The fl ow method allows us to dispel the myth that if scientists leave region A, they will simply work in another region. This study refutes such a hypothesis. Scientists, in particular, can change their specialty, leave the country, etc. The noted situation is similar for all 16 cities with a population of over a million in Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg and 18 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The infl ux of young scientists is decreasing while the workforce continues to age. If we ignore the results obtained, then in 5–10 years, for example, the Omsk region will begin to lose the ability to train specialists with higher education, not to mention candidates and doctors of science. A similar situation awaits other regions.

International Market Entry Strategies of Russian Organizations under Changed External Economic Conditions
Galina Litvintseva,  Andrey Ivashchenko,  Daniil Arbatskiy,  Aleksey Kolmagorov
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.2.2-332-351
Abstract:

The change in the system of world economic communications as a result of sanction policy towards Russia and its allied countries forces enterprises and organizations to prove strategies of entry into foreign markets for the purpose of income generation and inclusion in new value chains. Therefore, the purpose of this research is the comparative analysis of factors and assessment of the application of international market entry strategies of Russian IT companies. Qualitative and quantitative methods of economic research were applied to achieving this goal. Qualitative methods included PESTEL analysis, situation and comparative analysis. Quantitative methods included the cost-benefi t method, statistical techniques and economic analysis methods. Tabular and graphic approaches are used for text visualization. In this research the factors infl uencing organizations activity in the international sphere and also the main foreign market entry strategies of IT companies were analyzed. Comparative analysis revealed benefi ts and shortcomings of each strategy, taking into account modern forms of business and currency risks. For the Russian IT company producing software three strategies were evaluated: export, franchising and direct investments. The choice of the IT industry for considering international market entry strategies of Russian organizations is proven. It is necessary to separate the development of new technologies and infrastructure, existence of fi nancial resources and pressure of economic sanctions from the factors infl uencing this process. Of the three strategies analyzed, the lowest-cost and lowest-profi t strategy was the franchising strategy; it can be used when there is a shortage of fi nancial resources. For “growth hacking” the expensive, but highly profi table strategy of direct investment taking into account currency hedging is applicable. Proceeding from the analysis of the infl uencing factors and legal conditions of the Russian Federation it is expedient to follow the strategy of average profi table export for ensuring company development.

The practical application of strategies for organizations to enter foreign markets is a multifaceted object of research that requires a comprehensive analysis of various aspects of business expansion. The received results will help companies make weighed decisions when choosing the optimum strategy for expanding their business in the international market.

Methodological problems in assessing capital investments of electric grid companies
Grigory Shulgin
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.2.2-352-373
Abstract:

In the article the author reveals the most signifi cant methodological problems in this most important area, which is the basis for the reproduction of economic systems, on the basis of considering the most widely used methods of capital investment assessment. The article also provides a brief theoretical characterization of capital investments. It is concluded that the reason for methodological problems in the assessment of capital investments is the issue of the nature of capital, which has not been fully resolved in the fi eld of fundamental economic theory. The author draws attention to the fact that the detailed methods of capital investment assessment for specifi c conditions of management of individual sectoral economic systems, elaborated in scientifi c articles, dissertations and other works, do not receive scientifi c generalization and balanced assessment of the community. In fact, it means that there are no methods proven and used by many researchers and practitioners. It is shown that it is inappropriate to completely identify the investment process, project appraisal and capital investments of enterprises. The author points out the gap between fi nancial and technological effi ciency existing in the theory and practice of work with investments. Further, using the example of the Russian electric power transmission industry, the author shows how general methods of capital investment assessment may not be applicable depending on specifi c industry conditions, and how theoretical and methodological problems in practice turn into a lack of tools for decision-making.

In conclusion, based on the consideration of disproportions in the mechanism of capital investment assessment, implementation and regulation, another fundamental issue of the theory arises – the need to change approaches to the confl ict of interests and regulation of natural monopolies as a non-cooperative game.

The Evolution of the Territorial Structure of GDP
Boris Lavrovskii,  Ekaterina Goryushkina,  Evgenij Shil'cin,  Aleksej Chuvaev,  Irina Ruzaeva
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.2.2-239-253
Abstract:

Due to the extreme diversity of economic conditions, the level of interregional differences in Russia is unique. The extent of these differences is usually measured by traditional indicators of variation based on per capita GRP indicators. However, while the movement of the coeffi cient of variation, for example, refl ects the systemic properties of the object under study, it may not capture structural spatial shifts. But it is precisely these shifts, if they are stable, that are of particular interest both as a subject of scientifi c research and as an object of management by authorities.

The main question posed in the article is the following: Is there a connection between the level of economic development of a region and its “propensity” for structural displacement? Or in other words: how stable is the territory’s position in the interregional ranking of per capita GRP indicators, does it depend on the value of per capita GRP? It turns out that noticeable structural shifts (predominant growth or increasingly lagging behind the per capita GRP of the region relative to the national average) are the prerogative, fi rst of all, of territories with a level of per capita GDP close to the average.

Economy of the USSR during the Initial Period of the Great Patriotic War. Part 2
Grigory Khanin
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.2.2-254-267
Abstract:

This article is the fi nal one, the second part of the study devoted to the analysis of the economic history of the USSR in the initial period of the Great Patriotic War (1941–1942). The author considers the aspects of economic development not discussed in the fi rst part of the article. The greatest place is occupied by the analysis of the standard of living of the population in its various aspects. Numerous sources are used, including statistical collections of the war years, survey guides and memoirs of contemporaries. In addition to the current consumption of goods, the consumption of services and living conditions of the population are also considered.

The author analyzes the role of Lend-Lease economy in the USSR in detail. Supplies under the Lend-Lease program are considered not only for this period, but throughout the war. The analysis is carried out for individual product groups. It is shown that, contrary to the prevailing ideas in literature about the insignifi cance of the share of supplies under the Lend-Lease program, based on their estimates in value terms, especially in many key areas, the role of these supplies in the economy of the USSR during the war was enormous. The state of science and higher education during the turning point of the war is examined. It is shown that they were preserved and played an important role in improving the qualifi cations of personnel and the quality of military equipment. Particular attention is paid to the initial stage of research on atomic weapons. It is shown that despite limited resources, already in the most diffi cult period of the war in the USSR, research on the creation of nuclear weapons began.

Behavioral Economics in the Context of a Crisis Situation: Research and Conclusions
Elena Dzhandzhugazova
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.2.2-268-283
Abstract:

This article is devoted to the problems of behavioral economics, which defi nes the boundaries of rational consumer choice and studies models and scenarios of consumer behavior. The author examined the features of consumer behavior in the context of economic and geopolitical crises that modern Russia has gone through from the 1990s to the present. The article provides a periodization of crises, taking into account their specifi cs, causes and consequences. The research included an analysis of models and scenarios of consumer behavior during the acute phase of the crisis period in 2022, a comparative analysis of the cost structure; indices of the decline and growth of spending on the main categories of goods and services were given, and the readiness of consumers to refuse purchases was analyzed. Signifi cant attention in the work was paid to a comparative analysis of the main trends in consumer behavior during the crisis of 1997–1998 and the crisis of 2022, during which it was noted that consumer behavior is infl uenced by the increased maturity of markets and the preparedness of the public administration system for crisis situations. It is concluded that it is necessary to take into account the growing role of consumer behavior that deviates from the usual rational models, which emphasizes the need to develop new forms for building the economic policy of government bodies. In conclusion, the author focuses special attention on the fact that when making management decisions on the formation of programs to support industries and sectors of the economy, it is necessary to take into account emerging models and scenarios of consumer behavior.

Economy of the USSR during the initial period of the Great Patriotic War
Grigory Khanin
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.1.2-267-290
Abstract:

The article analyzes the economic history of the USSR, covering an impor­tant period of the history of Stalin’s economic model – the initial period of the Great Patriotic War (1941-1942). The main feature of the Soviet economy during the war was that already in the first months the USSR lost control over the most developed industrial areas. This situation required fundamental reorganization ofthe structure of the economy, when its main production capabilities were used to produce military equipment at the expense of reducing the output of civilian products. The losses of the USSR economy from the occupation of part of the territory are considered and it is shown that the USSR in 1941–1942 fought Ger­many and its allies, having halved mobilization and economic potential. The arti­cle analyzes the process of transferring the economy to the war economy, which required an increase in the length of the working day and the abolition of vaca­tions, the introduction of the card system, and the relocation of plants to other territories. The structure of state administration bodies, changes in the organiza­tion of management and the position of its individual participants in it are stud­ied separately. Tables are given and analyzed, giving an idea of the volume and dynamics of production of means of production in this period, the production of non-ferrous metals, the production of consumer goods, military equipment. It is shown that due to the low quality of military production in the Red Army a huge proportion of non-combat losses, which was primarily due to unrealistic plans. The situation in agriculture is examined, where the decline in producti­vity was due to a number of reasons, including the predominant mobilization of the population from rural areas with a minimum of reservations, the almost complete cessation of supplies of mineral fertilizers and agricultural machin­ery and, consequently, a sharp decline in the mechanization of work. The situ­ation in the construction industry, in the work of railroad transport is studied. The calculation of the dynamics of national income for 1940–1942 years is given. Thus, in the initial period of the Great Patriotic War revealed the strengths of the Stalinist economic model and created in the 30-ies military-economic potential, high qualifications of the country’s leaders promoted in the last pre-war years. The greatest achievements of the Soviet economy in this period are associated with the record-breaking rapid transfer of the entire economy on military rails.

Regional Income and Consumer Expenditure Specifics of the Canadian Population
Igor Mitroshin
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.1.2-291-308
Abstract:

In the confrontation between the global West and the global South, Russia found itself directly on the fault line. The confrontation leads to changes in the world economy, which, of course, have an impact on the standard of living ofthe population. It becomes relevant to study this influence, both in Russia and in countries that impose economic sanctions against it. This study provides a briefanalysis of household income and consumption expenditure in Canada for 2000­2022 across the provinces of the country. Based on the data obtained, a high de­gree of social support for Canadian citizens from the state was revealed, espe­cially in areas densely populated by indigenous peoples. The conditional division of the country according to the standard of living of the population into four geographical sectors is determined: northern, western, central and eastern. It has been established that throughout the entire period under review, the indicators of the standard of living of citizens in the northern provinces are the highest, and in the eastern provinces the lowest in Canada. At the same time, about two-thirds of the total population of Canada live in the eastern provinces, and the Northern provinces are very sparsely populated (less than 1% of the total popu­lation). It has been recorded that relatively high incomes and savings of the pop­ulation are not a determining factor in the country for choosing a place of resi­dence. Much depends on other indicators of the quality of life of people, as well as on the local mentality, traditions and culture.

Economic Сonsulting
Vladimir Klistorin
DOI: 10.17212/2075-0862-2024-16.1.2-251-266
Abstract:

The article discusses the reasons and motivations behind the demand for consulting services. Particular attention is paid to the motivation of managers ofenterprises, organizations and government agencies who resort to the services of external consultants when they have a large number of their own specialists and advisors. On the basis of the analysis of scientic literature and our own modest experience we draw conclusions that economic consulting is associated with a number of threats and risks both for the consulted organization and for the consultant himself. For enterprises of organizations and state structures the main threat is that, following standard models and schemes, one can miss spe­cic features of the external environment and internal organization of the ob­ject. In addition, recommendations may be implemented incompletely, formal­ly or partially, which may lead to undesirable results. For a consultant, the main threats are conicts of interest and allegations of corruption and insider trading of information. Innovative solutions are the most effective, but at the same time the most risk. Choosing the right consultant and ensuring their competence andindependence is a particular challenge. Therefore, the relationship between the consultant and the client is no less important than the tools and technology ofhis work in the process of making recommendations. Consulting of state struc­tures has a number of peculiarities, the main of which are the hierarchical nature of construction, latent doctrines of departments, motivation of managers and planning horizon of the manager. Economic counseling allows the researcher to get a unique experience that can be used in further work.