On the Approach to a Priori Estimation in Financial Problems
Egor Alekseev, Lyudmila Serga, Oleg Ryzhkov
In the process of financial management, there regularly appear tasks of making decisions about the importance of a particular value in the conditions of uncertainty. For such decisions, statistical methods are actively used, but in many cases the initial information is insufficient and / or subjective.
The article considers the problem of assessing financial values in the conditions of absence, insufficiency or inapplicability of statistical data. The authors describe an approach to a priori estimation, based on the formation of an undistorted assessment basis with the inclusion of the maximum number of acceptable alternatives and the application of a statistical-game approach to estimation. The assessment obtained using the proposed approach is stable and reproducible and it minimizes the expected absolute estimation error. The proposed approach shifts the emphasis in the work of specialists from the actual performance of the calculations to the search and analysis of the feasibility of alternatives, i.e. on the formation of a complete, comprehensive and reasonable basis for the assessment. Also, the authors discuss the possibility of applying this approach to the organization of financial management accounting at the university.
The article considers the tasks of the system of financial management accounting at the university, determines the financial values used in management accounting, for the assessment of which the a priori approach can be applied with the greatest efficiency.