Ideas and Ideals

The paper analyzes changes in structural policy in the USSR after Stalin’s death. They were intended to ease the material situation of the population of the USSR after the hardships on the eve and during the Great Patriotic War, which were only partially compensated for in the fi rst postwar period. These changes are called ‘the economic thaw of 1953’ by the author as an analogy with Ilja Ehrenburg story “The Thaw” and are barely covered in Russian economic literature.

The motives for implementing the structural maneouver of 1953 were the desire of the new soviet leadership to win the sympathy of soviet people.

The reform of 1953 is analyzed on the basis of the report of A.I. Mikoyan at the congress of trade workers of the USSR in October 1953 and a number of other sources.

The additional targets established for the production of consumer goods by industry for 1953 are compared with the targets of the fi ve-year plan. They appear to be signifi cantly higher than these targets for all types of products, especially for durable goods.

These fi ve-year plan tasks were fulfi lled for the fi rst time in the history of fi ve-year plans. At the same time, additional tasks for 1955 were not fulfi lled because they were not realistic. Great efforts were made to improve the living condition of the population by producing goods that make life easier, expanding the network of trade and public catering enterprises and improving the quality of their work.

In 1955, as a result of Мalenkov removal from the post of Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the USSR, there was a partial rejection of the structural maneuver of 1953. The Analysis shows that additional targets for the production of consumer goods for 1955 overestimated the real capabilities of the economy at that time. By diverting resources from heavy industry, those plans slowed down technical progress and the renewal of fi xed assets.

The article presents the results of a study assessing the impact of economic freedom on economic growth and public welfare, which is based on a formalized theoretical representation of degrees of freedom in the form of a parabolic curve with an optimum and deviations from it. This notion of economic freedom echoes the vision of socially useful ‘private vices’ described in Bernard Mandeville’s “The Fable of the Bees”. The evaluation tool is a theoretical-analytical economic-mathematical model of economic reproduction, refl ecting the dynamic process of production and distribution of a public product. Imitation of the development of the socio-economic system with different degrees of economic freedom and in conditions of institutional transformations leading to a change in the degree of freedom confi rmed the expediency of striving for the optimum of freedom. At the same time, contradictions were revealed that arise in the simulated system due to the ambiguity of the interests of economic agents involved in the reproduction process. It also shows the contradictory nature of the institutional reforms themselves, which have far different consequences for different social strata with overall positive changes in the economy.

The planning process is important for the rhythmic functioning of an organization. Planning at each stage of the production process leads to forecasting fi nancial results, in particular the profi t from sales of the organization.  As a rule, in the process of forecasting profi t from sales, only internal factors or processes that infl uence the organization’s activities are taken into account. The purpose of this paper is to substantiate the use of correlation and regression analysis as a tool for forecasting profi ts from a sales organization. The paper considers two approaches to forecasting profi t from sales, taking into account, among other things, the infl uence of external factors affecting organizations whose main activity is related to the rental and management of its own or leased real estate. The fi rst approach to profi t forecasting is based on the direct counting method and economic and mathematical algorithms. The second approach is the use of correlation and regression analysis, based on the infl uence of selected external factors. Profi t forecasting using correlation-regression analysis showed that the average rental price of commercial real estate has a negative relationship with sales profi t, and the amount of electricity consumed has a positive relationship with profi t from sales. Based on the results of the correlation analysis, it can be concluded that changes in the rental price of commercial real estate and the volume of electricity consumed affect the company’s sales profi t.  The value of the forecast sales profi t obtained under the optimistic scenario, calculated by the direct calculation method, is close to the forecast values calculated by the methods of correlation and regression analysis, which proves the importance of using this forecasting tool.

The article discusses the issue of crediting medium-sized companies in the current economic situation under the infl uence of sanctions. It examines the specifi cs of lending to these companies under such conditions. The author used methods such as complex analysis and system analysis. The paper considers the impact of economic restrictions on the Russian economy over the past decade, with a focus on sanctions imposed since 2022. Complex analysis allowed identifying the impact of sanction pressure on the crediting process. System analysis helped establish internal links between risks associated with lending under sanctions and decision-making regarding lending to individual borrowers. A list of the main risks associated with the implementation of a credit mechanism for companies borrowing from banks under the sanctions regime was formulated. The article explores the transformation of trade in trucks and other specialized equipment under economic constraints, as well as the tools banks use to assess the possibility of lending to these borrowers in current conditions.

The article highlights the features of car dealerships and analyzes the truck market in 2023: 144,000 new trucks were sold in the fi rst 12 months of 2023, accounting for 3.9 % of the overall cargo market in the country. There has been a shortage of heavy-duty tractors, estimated at 40,000 units. The top-selling tractor brands were identifi ed – domestic Kamaz and Chinese brands such as Dongfeng, Shacman, Howo, and Sitrak. Historical information is presented on the development of the truck market since 2022, including the role of credit institutions in promoting Chinese models. The activities of a Russian freight transport dealer (the name and location of the company are confi dential and subject to bank privacy) are analyzed using the author’s risk assessment method to determine the potential for lending to this business.

This article discusses the possibilities of using foresight analysis methods in relation to the issue of food supply. Taking into account the fact that food markets are a rather complex object of study, and food supply depends not only on quantitative (volume of consumption, total calorie intake), but also qualitative parameters (quality of nutrition, structure and macronutrient composition of the food basket, provision of micronutrients, etc.), using only quantitative, economic and statistical methods for analysis is inappropriate. The best effect can be achieved by foresight techniques that take into account non-trivial, deep connections and allow a more comprehensive look at the phenomenon under consideration.

Taking into account the above, the authors systematized modern approaches to foresight analysis, considered the most effective methods, such as identifying weak signals and wild card events, and also identifi ed the features of using these methodological approaches for analyzing food markets, which are subject to a wide range of diffi cult to predict climatic and technogenic factors, as well as factors of geopolitical and macroeconomic nature. An emphasis on identifying implicit connections, and also predicting key reference points that can have a decisive impact on the development of food markets, can help improve economic resilience in the face of emerging global food crises.

Thus, the study allows us to conclude that the use of modern foresight analysis methods for studying food supply issues is highly relevant. Identifi cation of weak signals and wild card events can allow a more rational and realistic approach to constructing scenarios for the development of food industry sectors, as well as early identifi cation of potential threats that could destabilize the situation and have a signifi cant negative impact on the level of food supply, both at the level of individual countries and in the world at large.

The question of optimal monetary policy is one of the most controversial among economists in different countries of the world. The answer to this is largely determined by the way money is formed in the economy. According to modern macroeconomic concepts, money supply can be infl uenced by factors other than monetary policy. This article discusses the main theoretical approaches to determining the mechanisms of formation of the money supply. The main attention is paid to the post-Keynesian theory of endogenous money supply, within which the accommodation and structuralist approaches dominate. Both approaches are based on the premise that the money supply in the country is affected by changes in bank loans. However, they differ in the degree to which the monetary regulator satisfi es the banks’ need for loans: full (accommodation) and partial (structuralism).

The main source of money supply growth in the modern world is the credit channel, which is considered key from the standpoint of post-Keynesianism, but considering the Russian economy in retrospect, one cannot help but note two more important sources, such as the currency channel, which was of great importance in the 2000s, and the fi scal channel, which currently also plays an important role in changes in the money supply. Since 2013, the Central Bank has been actively using such a regulatory instrument as the key interest rate in its monetary policy, which is consistent with the position of post-Keynesianism. Using the conducted theoretical review, as well as an analysis of the current state of the Russian money market and monetary policy, it is concluded that there are prerequisites for the endogeneity of the Russian money supply, which provides grounds for further analysis of the cause-and-effect relationships of key macroeconomic indicators using econometric models.

In the modern world, tourism, as an industry of interconnected sectors, infl uences the development of specifi c sectors of the economy and performs social and cultural functions. The article presents the author’s position, based on summaries of existing approaches and considering the paradigms of urbanization theory, that urban spaces today serve as a unifying sphere for various types of tourism, which are viewed as structural components of urban tourism. Based on the research fi ndings, the author provides a unique interpretation of the concepts ‘urban tourism’ and ‘urban tourism services market’, characterizing the urban tourism services market of Novosibirsk by highlighting various types of tourism resources – cultural-historical, architectural, infrastructural, etc.; the necessity for theoretical exploration of specifi c aspects of the urban tourism services market is argued. In particular, the possibility and necessity of implementing a conceptual economic model for assessing the current state and forecasting the development of the urban tourism services market based on the identifi cation of basic factors of its functioning – demand potential and supply potential – are justifi ed. The role of investment policy in the development of the urban tourism services market and the possibility of using cluster tools to activate demand and stimulate the sale of urban tourism services in the metropolis are outlined.

The growing specialization and formalization of economic knowledge threatens to break away from the general scientifi c base that forms the worldview of the researcher. An urgent task is presented in the reintegration of basic methodological principles and categories of science into modern social science and economic theory. The article conducts a comparative analysis of the works of K. Marx and K. Popper, who made revolutionary changes in the methodology and ideological attitudes (conceptual frameworks) of scientifi c knowledge. Marx’s contribution focuses on dialectical and historical materialism, the doctrine of the economic basis of society and the change of socio-economic formations; Popper’s contribution focuses on his trial and error method with falsifying interpretation of results and the concept of successive three worlds of the universe. Popper’s criticisms of Marxist doctrine (essentialism, elements of mythology, teleologism) and the counterarguments of consistent Marxists are evaluated. The paper characterizes Popper’s positions on the realism of scientifi c knowledge, the world of predispositions, fl exible management in animate and inanimate nature, the world of mental states of consciousness and the world of the objective content of thinking. Their commonality with the provisions of dialectical and historical materialism (the material nature of objective reality, the theory of refl ection, the role of objective mental forms and ideological social relations) in the formation of the ‘world of objective knowledge’ is shown. The insuffi ciency of Popper’s epistemology for the study of the economic basis of social life is revealed. Based on a str uctural and logical analysis of the methodological principles and theoretical positions of Marx and Popper, the paper outlines the paths to the development of a system of concepts that brings together the complementary results of their apparently opposing research programs. Also presented are sources showing the relevance of the ideas of Marx and Popper in modern methodological and socio-economic literature. It is concluded that the world of objective knowledge (the key category of Popper’s social science) is part of the socio-economic life of society (in its Marxist interpretation), which, in turn, is incomplete without taking into account the realities of this world and needs additional study from the appropriate angle.

In modern marketing, researchers are focused on the omnichannel approach due to the growing number of communication channels and sources of consumer information about brands. This paper examines the complexity and multifactorial nature of the omnichannel approach in the formation of customer experience and marketing communications in the digital environment. The article discusses the concept of a “Consumer Journey Map”, which refl ects the stages of making a purchase decision, after-sales interaction and the customer experience formed within this path. This approach allows you to defi ne and analyze the touchpoints with the consumer and information messages at each stage of the consumer journey in order to create a positive brand image. The consumer’s journey is formed by the sequential passage of a number of points of contact, which may belong to the brand, its partners or be independent. This affects the degree of brand control over the information at each of these points. Particular attention is paid to the complexity of tracking the entire variety of contact points through which the customer passes on the way to making a purchase. The management of this variety of points from the standpoint of a single communication environment of brand and consumer interaction is the subject of omnichannel marketing research. Within the framework of this study, the author considers the evaluation of the effectiveness of marketing channels at the stage of preparation for purchase. These channels may be underestimated, since in terms of direct return on marketing investments, they lose to the fi nal pre-purchase channels, but they play a key role in shaping the customer experience leading to subsequent purchases. The article presents the results of a study of online communication based on a company providing educational services. This study demonstrates the relationship between the volume of investments in paid promotion channels and the total revenue from online channels. The results of the study emphasize the importance of the omnichannel approach in modern communication, where the buyer interacts with the brand in various channels and perceives communication as a single continuous process, even when switching from one channel to another.

Based on the analysis of a number of macroeconomic and sectoral indicators, it is established that in January–April 2024, there was an economic decline compared to the corresponding period in 2023. Moreover, the extent of the decline is increasing month by month. It is noteworthy that the authorities, as in the past in the USSR, are turning a blind eye to the decline. The causes of the decline are determined by the combined impact of both cyclical factors (Western economic sanctions, overstrain from military expenditures) and long-term trends of a decline in fi xed assets and a reduction in the workforce, as well as the qualifi cations of personnel at all levels. The future prospects of the Russian economy are determined, along with ensuring effective economic policy and building a functional state system, by the level of escalation of the confl ict in Ukraine and the extent of economic sanctions. In the event of signifi cant escalation of military actions, what will be required is a transition to a wartime economy with a high share of military expenditures in GDP, a reduction in consumer spending and non-productive investments, mobilization of labor resources in favor of the armed forces and the military-industrial complex, and the introduction of a rationing system for main food products, as well as the nationalization of several companies. The success of this structural maneuver is determined by the organization and qualifi cations of the state apparatus. In the case of moderate escalation of military actions and economic sanctions, the radical nature of structural and institutional changes will decrease.