THE YEARS OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STABILIZATION AND THE BEGINNING OF A NEW CRISIS (2002-2015)
Khanin GrigoryThe article is devoted to the author’s teaching and research activities in 2002-2015. The author was teaching simultaneously at Novosibirsk State Technical University (NSTU) and the Siberian Academy for Public Administration (SAPA, now – the Siberian Institute of Management – the branch of RANEPA). The most effective teaching took place at NSTU, due to better preparation and motivation of students. Unfortunately, the most gifted students didn’t actualize themselves in science because of low prestige of science in Russia. It was less interesting for him to teach at SAPA because students and postgraduates were less interested and less prepared. At that time he started reading a new course "National Economy". Developing the course helped him understand better the basic features of economic development of Russia, at least since the 18th century: economy development went by jerks. He found the explanation of the Russian historical process and it stimulated his research activities. He focused his scientific work on "The Economic History of Russia in Modern Times." In the given article the author reveals the problems, which appeared while writing the first volume as well as the problems of the Soviet economic system since the early 60's until the collapse of the Soviet system in the early 90s. The author stresses the fact of his acquaintance and subsequent cooperation with the economist Dmitry Aleksandrovich Fomin. Many articles based on precise calculations were written with him. On the basis of these studies, he concluded that the recovery growth of the Russian economy would prolong to 2007, the process similar to the NEP. He also predicted that such a growth should result in stagnation and decline in GDP with the exhaustion of available resources and the absence of real modernization and the lack of human capital. The forecast of the author came true in many respects: the cessation of economic growth in 2008, and the world oil prices in 2015.