Economic Consequences of the Special Military Operation and Western Economic SanctionsKhanin Grigory
The article considers the short-term, mid-term and long-term economic consequences of the special military operation by the Russian Federation in Ukraine and the impact of Western economic sanctions on the economic development of the Russian Federation from March till June 2022. Despite a short time passed since the beginning of the special operation and the introduction of economic sanctions against Russia, they have already made a serious impact on the Russian economy. There has been a rapid deterioration of many general and sectoral indicators. The slow-down in the investment sector is particularly dangerous in terms of mid-term consequences. The secrecy of much statistical and accounting data, imposed for the first time in the post-Soviet period, can be considered an indirect indicator of the severity of the economic crisis. While assessing the mid-term consequences of the current economic crisis, attention is drawn to the structural weaknesses of the Russian economy that have developed over the past 30 years and to the degradation of material and human capital during this period. The development of the country is compared to the movement of a ship. It is shown that with the current defects, the ship called ‘Russia’ in its current state is not able to withstand the storm caused by the military operation and economic sanctions. The economic, scientific and technical development of the USSR and the Russian Federation over the last 60 years is analyzed in detail. The analysis has shown that during this period almost all most important economic, scientific and technical indicators together with the intellectual potential demonstrated a continuous degradation. Thus, the Russian society and the state are facing the consequences of the mistakes and missed opportunities of the past 60 years. A lot of effort and time are required to overcome the consequences of these mistakes.